Future Scenarios for the Charity Sector in 2045 (UK/AU/NZ)

18/09/2017

Carolyn J. Cordery, Karen A. Smith & Harry Berger

Public Money & Management Vol 37, Issue 3, 2017

Full paper available here.

ABSTRACT:

"Rapid change is affecting the demography, technology and availability of resources (both financial and volunteer) on which charities draw. This paper presents four different scenarios that could describe the charity sector one generation from now as it responds to a different world. We highlight the dangers if any one scenario becomes dominant. While it is inevitable that change will occur, these drawbacks should be minimized and it is important that public funders and policy makers steer intelligently through this changing world. Also, charity leaders must prepare and plan for inevitable change in the sector."

Comments:

The paper is a good overview of current issues in operation of charities. It identifies four key drivers for change, two of which relate to aspects of resources:

  • trends in demography –e.g. the aging population and consequences of this on volunteering and charitable donations,
  • advances in technology e.g. bringing the opportunity of global reach and innovation in fundraising such as crowd funding and online fundraising campaigns with potential to go viral an example being the ice bucket challenge;
  • changes to funding sources e.g. the growth of corporate partnerships and government funding and the implications of meeting the requirements of the partners and funders; and
  • changes in volunteer support e.g. with volunteers taking on more roles as staff budgets tighten, and the growth in one-off, episodic, virtual and micro volunteering

It looks in detail at these drivers, with examples of the operations of each, before using these to undertake scenario planning.

This leads to several key questions:

"Will commercialization rather than compassion drive charitable operations? Will global technology crowd-out local service efforts? Will volunteers be available? Will they be too demanding, or will demographic and technological shifts radically reduce or increase volunteers’ availability?" (page 192).

Four scenarios are developed for 2045 and discussed.